How accurate is the snow day calculator?
We don't know yet, and we won't pretend to. Here is how we will find out, and when.
Updated October 17, 2026
Why there is no accuracy number here yet
Some snow day sites advertise accuracy figures without showing how they were measured. There is no national record of school closures to check against, so the only honest way to measure accuracy is to collect outcomes ourselves and compare them with what the calculator said the night before.
Our model is new this winter. Until enough storm days have been checked, we make no accuracy claim at all.
How we will measure it
- Every night we save the chance shown for each school district.
- The next morning, parents and students can report whether their district closed, delayed, dismissed early or opened.
- We compare the two: of all the nights we said 70–80%, how many actually closed? A well-calibrated calculator closes about 75% of those.
- We publish the results by chance band and by region, including where we miss.
First numbers in January 2027
The first report will appear here after the first big storms of the season, once enough districts have reported outcomes to say something real.
Help us measure it
The morning after a storm, report what your district did. It takes ten seconds, needs no account, and every report makes the next night's estimate better.